primary race has become a virtual dead heat between five or six candidates. Rand Paul
sits ahead of the field at 16%, his highest numbers since April, and the first time he has
held sole possession of first place. Behind him are Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, and Paul
Ryan, all at 13%. This is a slight drop for Bush and Christie, who last month had both led
with 15%. Just after that is Ted Cruz with 12%, a huge increase from 7% in May.
Rounding out the frontrunners is Marco Rubio, who continues to slide in the polls,
pulling in 10%. This is less than half of the 21% of the vote he received back in April.
“The trend in the Republican primary field is pretty clear,” said Dean Debnam, President
of Public Policy Polling. “Rand Paul and Ted Cruz are up and Marco Rubio is down.”
In the general election, Hillary Clinton still leads her competitors, though the number of
close races is growing. Chris Christie was once again within the margin of error in his
head-to-head matchup, down 43% to 42%. So did Paul Ryan, who trails Clinton 46% to
44%, and Jeb Bush, who trails 44% to 41%. All three of the Republican candidates were
able to pull in at least 10% of Democrats and lead by at least 5% with independents. Rand
Paul is doing considerably worse, down 47% to 39%, due to the fact that he would only
have the guaranteed support of 78% of his own party. Marco Rubio has rebounded
considerably against Hillary, down 45% to 40%, compared to an 11% deficit last month.
Against Joe Biden, the Republicans are doing much better, leading or tying in every
hypothetical matchup. Only Christie and Bush, who lead Biden by 6% and 4%
respectively, have leads outside of the margin of error. Paul Ryan leads by 3%, and Rubio
and Paul both tie with Biden. With the exception of Christie, whose lead remains
unchanged, these are all improvements over past performances.
Finally, in the Democratic primaries much remains the same as before. Hillary’s lead is
just as massive as in months prior, taking in 52% to Biden’s 12%, and Biden has a lead of
21% over the field if she doesn’t run.
PPP surveyed 800 registered voters, as well as 500 Republican and 418 Democratic primary
voters, between July 19-21, 2013. The margin of error was +/- 3.5% for the general election, +/-
4.3% for the Republican, and +/-4.7% for the Democratic primary. This poll was not authorized
or paid for by any campaign or political organization. PPP’s surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.